COP28: Mitigation Expectations for the Oil & Gas Industry

The 2023 Conference of the Parties of the UNFCC, widely known as COP28, will be the 28th United Nations Climate Change conference, convening 30 November to 12 December in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Simply put, COP is where almost every country in the world comes together to address the climate crisis. 

Ahead of the world’s only multilateral decision-making forum on climate change, we asked four industry representatives to share their thoughts on what they expect to come out of COP28, specifically within the world of oil and gas and methane mitigation. 

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“Recently published WEO by IEA underscores the pressing need to address methane emissions, particularly from fossil fuels. The message is clear: while both methane and carbon dioxide reductions are vital, neither can singularly ensure a stable climate. It's only through their combined efforts that we can realistically aspire to keep the 1.5°C target within reach. 

COP 28 offers an unparalleled opportunity for the global industry to manifest its commitment to both methane and broader climate action. Notably, National Oil Companies (NOCs) play a vital role, representing nearly half of the global oil and gas production and two-thirds of global reserves. Further commitment and resources from their side can elevate their methane reduction endeavours. There is an excellent chance for more countries endorsing Global Methane Pledge and more companies joining OGMP 2.0 initiative. COP 28 results could mobilise the capital to scale up methane abatement solutions and emphasise positive economic opportunities associated with methane capture and return on investment for methane abatement projects.” - Andris Piebalgs, Part-time Professor, Florence School of Regulation. Former Commissioner for Energy (Barroso I) and for Development (Barroso II) 

“At COP 28, methane will once again take centre stage for decision makers. Last year marked the establishment of the global methane pledge, targeting not just the oil and gas or energy sectors but also agriculture and waste, setting a 30% reduction target. 

Two years prior, the International Methane Emission Observatory (IMMEO) was established, an initiative our industry has supported from the outset, including the UN, European Commission, and EU at large.

In Europe, the energy sector contributes 11% to total anthropogenic methane emissions, waste and agriculture make up 24% and 56%, respectively. So, action is needed across all sectors. Which is why I think that the spotlight won't just be on energy, but other sectors as well. In terms of oil and gas specifically, attention will likely extend beyond Europe to countries just now considering methane emission reductions, such as those in Central Asia, the Middle East, or Africa. Countries under COP 28 will likely aim to address this.

One example of a potential action could be identifying super emitters across the world, which can easily be detected through satellite technologies. European companies have been at the forefront of methane emission mitigation and are expected to intensify their efforts. Collaboration between these companies and state-owned entities, especially those adjacent to the European Union, has already begun.

Regarding the regulatory landscape, adoption of the regulation is imminent. It's not until 2026 that revisions might be considered in some parts of the regulation. This timeline allows for an assessment of lessons learned, evaluating successes and shortcomings in the current regulation, leading to corresponding changes that have to be made.

While several technical aspects remain unresolved, there's hope for their resolution before adoption. Any unresolved issues could pose risks to implementation, necessitating clarification between Member States, their competent authorities, and the European Commission overseeing the new regulatory framework in Europe.

I think we need to admit that such regulations are seldom perfect from day one, and there is always room for improvement. Swift action on these improvements is essential for companies, for upstream and downstream companies, to address methane emissions efficiently and proportionately.” - Emils Lagzdins, Senior Policy Officer, IOGP Europe

“The oil and gas industry routinely handles a very potent climate pollutant – methane. This invisible, odorless, forceful gas warms the earth over 80 times more powerfully than carbon dioxide. Eliminating methane emissions in upstream and midstream operations is an immediate step that producers and shippers can take to safeguard the planet. This will require more ongoing monitoring, transparent reporting, and independent verification of methane leakage systemwide. Current self-reporting misses a significant share of methane emissions. Accurate methane inventories are a critical first step. So too is funding publicly available satellites and other sensors that can spot venting and fugitive emissions. Making activity data available to model methane intensities from otherwise equivalent barrels of oil and gas can differentiate and price in these resources’ relative climate footprints.   

The oil and gas industry is at an inflection point. They must prioritize methane emissions, which today pose a major warming threat.  Given that methane releases are often cost effective or even profitable to stop, operators can no longer afford — neither reputationally nor financially — to ignore methane. COP28 is the time and place to double down on durable methane mitigation.” - Deborah Gordon and TJ Conway, RMI Climate Intelligence Program  

“Oil and gas emissions are coming into sharp focus in the run-up to COP28, and rightly so. CATF is focused on driving ambition and action from major stakeholders, including the global oil and gas sector. We want to see strong NOC and IOC leadership in oil and gas decarbonization efforts and firm commitments to reduce upstream methane emissions and manage CO2 emissions on a near-term time frame. We also want to see data and goal transparency and reporting, and a structure around emissions abatement in the sector that lives on well beyond COP28. Where incentives exist, oil and gas companies should leverage them and their expertise to commercialize and deploy critical technologies like carbon capture and storage. Finally, we'd like to see the final communications out of COP call for countries to cover all greenhouse gasses in their NDCs, including ambitious and achievable targets by sector.” - Brandon Locke, Europe Policy Manager, Methane, Clean Air Task Force 

READ: 5 Updates in This Week's Methane News

Interested in learning more? 
Andris Piebalgs, Brandon Locke and Emils Lagzdins will be speaking at the Methane Mitigation Europe Summit taking place in Amsterdam, 12-14 February, 2024. Hear from them and join over 200 of your peers for Europe’s largest methane gathering and prepare to learn from and collaborate with some of the leading minds in the industry. Download the event guide for more information.